Photo Credit: Ashley McCubbin
One Race. Four Drivers.
Entering the NASCAR Canadian Tire Series season finale Pinty’s 250 at Kawartha Speedway, four drivers have a chance at winning the championship after a season-long of competition. Three-Time Series Champion Scott Steckly enters this weekend leading by nine points ahead of Jason Hathaway and Andrew Ranger. Last year’s series champion L.P. Dumoulin also enters this weekend with a mathematical chance, currently sitting 23 points behind Steckly fourth in points.
For Steckly, a finish of fourth or better without leading a lap, fifth or better with a lap led, or sixth or better with leading the most laps would hand him the championship with no math involved as he would have more points than Hathaway or Ranger could possibly score in the event, even if either were to win and lea the most laps.
“As a team, we’re looking forward to the Pinty’s 250,” he commented. “I wish it would’ve been two weeks ago instead of waiting this long. But, anything can happen in racing and we’re going there to win the race and hopefully get Canadian Tire another championship.”
For Hathaway and Ranger – there are plenty of scenarios that could hand either driver the championship this season.
- If Hathaway leads the most laps and wins the race (finishing the season with 442 points), he wins the championship if Steckly finishes worse than fourth without a leading lap, worse than fifth if he led a lap, and worse than sixth if he led the most laps.
- If Hathaway leads the most laps and wins the race (finishing the season with 442 points), and Steckly were to finish fifth without leading a lap, sixth if he lead a lap, seventh if he led the most laps – the season would end in a tie. This would hand the championship to Hathaway as both drivers would finish the year with three wins. Hathaway would then win the tiebreaker as he has two runner-ups, while Steckly has zero.
- If Hathaway wins the race without leading the most laps (finishing the season with 441 points), he wins the championship if Steckly finishes worse than fifth without leading a lap, worse than sixth if he led a lap, and worse than seventh if he led the most laps.
- If Hathaway wins the race without leading the most laps (finishing the season with 441 points), and Steckly were to finish sixth without leading a lap, seventh if he lead a lap, eighth if he led the most laps – the season would end in a tie. This would hand the championship to Hathaway as both drivers would finish the year with three wins. Hathaway would then win the tiebreaker as he has two runner-ups, while Steckly has zero.
Notably for Hathaway, if Steckly and Hathaway tie in a situation that sees Hathaway not win the race, Steckly wins the tie-breaker as he has three wins on the season whereas Hathaway only has two wins.
The same scenarios would apply for Ranger, however Ranger would not beat Steckly in a tie-breaker as even if Ranger won Kawartha, that’d give him two wins, whereas Steckly has already won three races this year.
“Looking forward to this weekend and getting down to this last race to decide the championship,” Hathaway commented. “I know our team, like everybody else, is putting in extra hours this week. Looking forward to getting on the track and putting on a show for the fans.”
“I think it’s going to be a stressful race,” Ranger commented. “I’ve been with the MOPAR team already. They’ve been working really hard on the car and its going to be a fun race, fun track. Hope we put on a good show for the fans and win a third championship.”
As mentioned, Dumoulin also enters this weekend with an outside chance at the championship, depending what happens to his fellow competitors during the race. There are a couple different scenarios that would hand Dumoulin his second straight championship, but here’s a brief version of that. Notably, even with a win at Kawartha, Dumoulin could not win a tie-breaker with any of the drivers involved in the championship fight.
- If Dumoulin leads the most laps and wins the race (finishing the season with 428 points), he wins the championship if…..
- Steckly finishes worse than 20th without a leading lap, worse than 21st if he led a lap, and worse than 22nd if he led the most laps.
- Hathaway and Ranger both finish worse than 11th without leading a lap, worse than 12th if they led a lap, and worse than 13th if they led the most laps
- If Dumoulin leads wins the race without leading the most laps (finishing the season with 427 points), he wins the championship if…..
- Steckly finishes worse than 21st without a leading lap, worse than 22nd if he led a lap, and worse than 23rd if he led the most laps.
- Hathaway and Ranger both finish worse than 12th without leading a lap, worse than 13th if they led a lap, and worse than 14th if they led the most laps
“We’ve been around racing for a long time and seen a lot of magical stuff out there,” Dumoulin noted. “But, of course, it’s a long shot to win the championship this weekend. I think our WeatherTech team has been focusing more on winning the race than the championship. You never want to wish bad luck to anyone so I just hope that we can give a really good show for the fans. I know there’s going to be a lot of drivers and cars out there – 24 cars I think – so I’m looking forward to the race itself than the championship. The championship – you never know. But I just want to have fun out there and try hard to win the race.”
There are many scenarios beyond what is listed here, as drivers could win the championship by not winning the race, depending how the math pans out. Fans looking to follow along and see how it could break down and can check out the chart that was developed by NASCAR going into this weekend.
