2012 Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship preview

By Brian Wiggins and Mark Schafer

Over the next ten weeks there is only one thing that will be on 12 driver’s mind.

They will want to score the most points in as many races as possible as the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season draws to a close. All drivers involved in the Chase want one thing; to be standing at the end of the race at Homestead with the most points and the champion of the 2012 season.

Over the next 10 weeks, 12 drivers will face 10 different tracks trying to best each other and the other 31 drivers that will be on track.

Not all the tracks are the same, some are similar, such as Chicago and Kansas, Charlotte and Texas, but even those are different from each other. Over the next 10 races the drivers will face short tracks and superspeedways as well as several “intermediate” tracks, which are the 1.5 mile tracks that make up most of the Chase.

Here is how each driver got into the chase and where they will start points wise at Chicago: 

1: Denny Hamlin- With a season filled with ups and downs, Hamlin enters the Chase as the number one seed heading into Chicagoland. Picking up a win at Phoenix in March, Hamlin won again the next month at the Kansas Speedway. From there, the No.11 team hit a rough stretch in the summer months with a late race crash at Pocono setting the tone to how rough it was for Hamlin. A big win in the night race at Bristol gave Hamlin a shot of momentum which he carried into the following week’s race at Atlanta Motor Speedway, becoming so far the only back-to-back winner in the Cup Series this season. Looking at tracks Hamlin could win on in the Chase, you can look past Loudon, Martinsville, Texas, and Phoenix.

2: Jimmie Johnson- After a lap two crash in the season opening Daytona 500, the No.48 team and Johnson have been a model of consistency through much of the 2012 season, posting 12 top-five’s and 17 top-10 finishes. The team also reeled off three victories over the course of the first 26 races (Darlington, Dover, and Indianapolis). To add to that, they won their first pole since September,2010 at Kentucky (Sparta) Speedway in June. Tracks that Johnson could leave his mark on in the Chase would be; Dover, Kansas, Martinsville, and Phoenix.

3: Tony Stewart- The defending Sprint Cup champion comes into this year’s Chase far better off than he did last time around. Winning two of the first five races, Stewart also laid claim on Daytona’s mid-summer classic for his third and most recent win of the 2012 season. Lately however, the No.14 team has hit a bit of a rough patch with an array of results scattered throughout the field. Stewart will start the Chase tied for second in points, but with little momentum. Like last year, he’s going to need to tap into that magic box to win the championship. Tracks that Stewart could win on in the Chase would be; Chicagoland, Loudon, and Homestead-Miami.

4: Brad Keselowski- The lone driver from Penske Racing in the Chase, the Michigan native matched his 2011 season win total in the first 17 races in 2012 by winning on three different occasions (Bristol, Talladega and Kentucky).Following a second place finish at Michigan, Keselowski climbed to a season best second in points. Although Keselowski was a week-to-week threat to win races, the No.2 team wasn’t prone to bad luck with four finishes worse than 30^th. Tracks that Keselowski could win at in the Chase would be; Charlotte, Loudon, Martinsville, and Talladega.

5: Greg Biffle- If there has been one word that has descirbed Greg Biffle in the 2012 season, it would be: consistent. He started off the season with three straight third place finishes and got out to an early season points lead. He dropped as far back as fifth in the standings, but that was it. As the chase neared, Biffle found himself back on top of the points before being reshuffled for the start of the chase. He captured his first victory of the year at Texas in April. Biffle got his second win of the season by being in the right spot at the right time when he captured the win at the second Michigan race. Biffle has combined consistent finishes and a very few number of laps that he didn’t compete to find himself in the chase. Tracks that Biffle could be win races on would be Loudon, Kansas, Texas and Talladega.

6: Clint Bowyer- His days at Richard Childress Racing, Bowyer was known as being a source of consistency. He made the chase three of his five years. In his first year at Michael Waltrip racing, Bowyer brought that same consistency and was able to capture two wins in the regular season, with a wins at Sonoma and the regular season finale at Richmond. The chase could be a strong point for Bowyer, of his seven career victories, four of them have come in the Chase. The win at  the short track Richmond and the Road Course of Sonoma has  added to Bowyer’s strong suit, MWR has been fast at the mile and a half’s all season which makes him a threat in the chase. Being the two time fall race defender at Talladega just adds another notch in the belt to Bowyer’s team. Tracks to watch out for Bowyer to get a win would be: Loudon, Martinsville and Talladega.

7: Dale Earnhardt Jr.- When Dale Earnhardt Jr. got his first win in four years at Michigan International Speedway this year all was right for the driver of the No. 88 Hendrick Chevrolet. That day he returned to victory lane and he was able to take the points lead as well. For most of the season Jr. has been able to stay near the top of the points lead, if not in it. His team has had consistent top-five and top-10 runs to compete all year and they have, for the most part, avoided the bad luck of much of their other teammates. Despite being one of the quietest Hendrick Motorsports drivers all years, he and his team has shown Johnson-like championship runs this year. Junior could capture wins at Chicago, Talladega, Martinsville and Texas.

8: Matt Kenseth- It couldn’t have been a better start for Matt Kenseth and his No. 17 Roush-Fenway racing crew. They survived all the elements of the season opening Daytona 500 and drove to victory. From there, Kenseth went on to have a strong first half of the season, leading the points for several weeks and being competitive week after week. The team faded a bit in the second half, still staying strong in points, but his race results became less consistent. It was announced that this is his last season with Roush-Fenway and that could play a role in how well the  team does in the chase. Tracks where Kenseth could win would be Charlotte, Talladega and Texas.

9: Kevin Harvick- 2012 wasn’t the year the No.29 and Harvick expected coming off back-to-back third place finishes in the final point standings the past two seasons. With Shane Wilson acting as crew chief, the team started out the season with a second at Phoenix, but from there things were never quite the same as the team failed to reach victory lane. Prior to the Bristol race, the team opted to put the same crew chief that guided the team to the third place finishes, Gil Martin, back on top the pit box. Solid runs at Bristol, Atlanta and Richmond have given the team shot in the arm. Tracks Harvick could win at in the Chase would be Chicagoland, Phoenix, and Talladega.

10: Martin Truex Jr.- If there is one thing that the Chases of years past has taught anyone, it’s that wins in the regular season don’t always matter in the chase. That is a good thing for Truex and the No. 56 team. Another good sign is that the team has been fast all year and they have been fast at a majority of the mile and a half tracks, tracks that a majority of the chase is made up of. Despite going winless, so far, in 2012 Truex and crew have put together a strong year. They have been around fifth in points for most of the season and have kept the cars strong week in and week out. Tracks which Truex could post wins at are Charlotte, Texas and Homestead-Miami.

11: Kasey Kahne- When the season started it seemed that Kahne and the No. 5 team might have to worry more about making the Top-35 in owner points then the Chase. Then the Kahne was able to get out of his slump and was able to find victory lane at the Coca-Cola 600 in Charlotte in May. Kahne backed that up with a win at Loudon. However, because of his early season struggles, Kahne wasn’t able to get into the top-10 and points. He still made the chase, by virtue of his two wins, but because he is a wildcard he won’t get the bonus from those wins and will start the chase 12 points out of the lead. Tracks where Kahne could win would be Loudon, Charlotte, Texas and Homestead-Miami.

12: Jeff Gordon- If Jeff Gordon didn’t have bad luck he’d have no luck at all. That adage sums up the 2012 season for Gordon. From a blown motor in the Daytona 500, it was one thing after another than put the team back to a career worst 24^th in points after 11 races. Things slowly turned around for the four-time champion, picking up a win at the August race at Pocono, giving him a chance at the Chase wildcard heading into Richmond. After coming back from an ill handling car, Gordon made a late race charge to finish the night second and make the Chase. If there’s anything we’ve learned over the years, it’s to not doubt Gordon. Tracks he could find victory lane at in the Chase would be; Chicagoland, Dover,Charlotte, and Talladega.

Brian’s Chase Race Picks